False consensus effect
What is the false consensus effect in social psychology? What is an example of a false consensus effect?
Imagine a teacher giving students a chance to earn extra credits. To do this, you need to write a three-page paper or work two Saturdays at a local nursing home.
You quickly agree to volunteer work, you are sure that the vast majority of your classmates have chosen the same option.
However, when you show up at the entrance to the nursing home at the appointed time, you are surprised to learn that only three students from your group have chosen to work on Saturdays - the rest have chosen to write the paper.
Here's a great example of the false consensus effect in action. You yourself would prefer to spend your time on a good endeavor instead of boring work, and you assume that most people will make the same choice.
We tend to overestimate the extent to which other people agree with our beliefs, values, attitudes, and behaviors. This creates a false consensus that can influence our decisions and behavior. False consensus is a type of cognitive error in which people mistakenly believe that more people share their beliefs than they actually do. People believe that their own values and ideas are the norm and that others agree with them.
Why does the false consensus effect occur?
One possible reason for false consensus is the so-called availability heuristic. What does availability heuristic mean? When we try to estimate the likelihood of an event, we first of all pay attention to the examples that first come to mind.
If you are trying to determine if other people share your beliefs, you may immediately think of your loved ones, who are more likely to actually share your ideas. Examples like this come to mind so easily, making you believe that others will readily agree with you.
First of all, it is our family and our friends - everyone who is close to us and has a lot in common - that makes us overestimate the opinions of other people.
The idea that other people think and act the same way we do can be good for our self-esteem. Just to feel good, we tend to think that other people are like us.
We tend to notice when other people have views similar to ours, which also makes us overestimate how often they actually meet.
The researchers suggested that there are three main reasons for the emergence of false consensus.
Factors influencing the false consensus effect
the question is of great importance for the person himself;
the behavior/attitude/beliefs in question are directly related to the specific situation;
a person is sure that his point of view is correct.
The false consensus effect tends to be stronger when:
beliefs are actually common to the vast majority of people;
one does not know how others might think or act;
a person perceives those whose opinion is meant negatively.
False consensus is much less likely to occur when:
The false consensus effect is more common in situations to which we attach great importance. If you are very concerned about, for example, the state of the environment, you are likely to overestimate the number of people who also care about conservation issues.
This effect is enhanced when we are absolutely sure that our beliefs are correct. If you are 100% sure that a certain law will reduce the number of crimes in your country, you will think that other people will support the passage of this law.
Finally, we are more likely to fall into the clutches of a false consensus in cases where situational factors play an important role. If we believe that our own preferences are due to external factors, we tend to believe that other people are influenced by these factors. For example, imagine that you saw a movie and thought it was terrible because of the lack of a plot or poor special effects. It seems that the reason is objective, so you assume that the rest of the audience will not like it either.
Research on the false consensus effect
The false consensus effect was first described in the late 1970s by researcher Lee Ross and his colleagues. In one experiment, they asked participants to read a message about a conflict that had two ways to resolve it. Then the participants had to say which of the two options they would choose themselves and which option the majority would choose, as well as characterize the people who would choose one or the other option.
The researchers found that no matter which option the participants chose, they tended to assume that most people would also choose that one. In addition, it turned out that people tend to give negative descriptions to people who choose an alternative.
In a second study, Ross and colleagues offered the university students walking around campus holding a large "Eat at Joe's" sign. Someone refused, someone agreed. All of them were then asked to rate the likelihood that other students would also agree to hold the sign.
The researchers found that 62% of the students who agreed to hold the advertisement considered this probability to be high. Whereas among those who refused, only 33% decided that other people would be ready to do it.
But what about how many students actually agreed to walk around with the sign? The researchers found that 60% were willing to hold the sign, 40% refused. The results confirm that those who were willing to help the café owner promote were confident that others would follow their example; and vice versa.
False consensus effect in action
e.g. Carl reads conservative magazines, watches conservative TV shows, and hangs out with people who share his conservative political views. During local elections, he expects the Conservative candidate to win the race and is stunned when the Liberal wins by a wide margin. It was because of the false consensus that Carl overestimated the popularity of the conservatives and is now feeling frustrated.
e.g. Steven and Kyle prefer iced tea to soda. They decide to invite their friends and have a party. They assume that all their friends also like tea, so they only buy ice tea from cold drinks. And then during the party they are surprised that no one wants to drink iced tea.
